The Future of Political Studies

 

Paul Hirst

 

Talk given to the Annual Conference of the Danish Political Science Association, October 2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have taught and researched about politics for what I now realise is a long time.  I have never felt as strongly as I do now that our discipline needs a period of intellectual stocktaking and reflection on the problems and issues it should study.  This does not mean “political studies” is in crisis, quite the contrary.  The discipline remains more relevant than ever, but because that is so, we need to re-direct ourselves so that we can cope with the reasons why and thpotential dangers that arise from them.

 

Two events have prompted me.  The first was the 30th Anniversary of the Birkbeck School of Politics. Second, recently I was interviewing for a chair at another institution and I asked each of the candidates a stock question that I often ask to get people to respond outside their prepared answers—“what do you think the core agenda of political studies should be over the next decade?” I then reflected that I should answer myself sometime, and try not merely to re-state my own research interests as if they were the core goals of the discipline.  So here goes. I shall make five points about theory and method, and five more about issues on the agenda for study.

 

Theory and Method

 

First, I see two principal dangers at the moment,  either of which would be fatal to the discipline if the tendency it represents were to prevail.  The first is the re-ideologisation of political studies—that is, the domination of the issues we study by external political agendas.  This seriously damaged us, particularly in Europe, during the 1970s, when so much energy was consumed in infighting between Marxist sects.  In the 1980s most of the ideology came from the right—advocating Monetarism, de-regulation and privatization—and from economics, preaching the superior allocative efficiency of free markets.  Now the main danger comes from those who advocate solutions to the problem of the relation between national and international economics and politics.  I use this somewhat convoluted formula deliberately to avoid the fatuity of “globalization”.  Both the advocates of “globalization”, conceived as the extension of free market doctrine to the international scale, and the spokespeople for the “anti-globalization” movement are excessively ideological.  Both offer excellent polemical critiques of the opposing position: free markets will not solve the central world economic problem of inequality within and between nations; but the “alternatives” of the anti-globalizers are either economically unviable, or, whilst useful reforms, hardly real solutions to the main problems of global development.  To try to stand between the two, as I have done, is tough.  Ideologisation breeds the “if you are not for us, you are against us” mentality—this is fatal to the scepticism and objective study needed both for scientific work and credible political action.

 

This is not only an issue about the global economy but about the direction of international politics.  Ideology is on the rise.  In the respect to the issue of international governance we have the opposition between cosmopolitan democracy and international legalism on the left and the renaissance of political realism and the discourse of “empire” on the right.  This more or less exactly mirrors the conflict in the 1920s and 1930s between the international idealists, who supported the League of Nations, and the nationalists and realists.  On the left we see the success of neo-Marxist tracts like Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri’s Empire, and on the right the neo-imperialist tracts by Robert D. Kaplan The Coming Anarchy and Warrior Politics: Why Leadership Demands a Pagan Ethos.  Neither of those books is bad and both have something to say; they would not be so popular were that so, but they feed polemic in an area where we need above all to find out “what works”.  Cosmopolitan idealism, neo imperialism and revived revolutionary leftism are hardly good news—all three are 20th century solutions that failed dressed up in new ideological clothing.

 

The second danger is the exact opposite of the first—the hegemony of American style “political science” in the discipline.  US universities have so much more money and US journals are the most prestigious in an increasingly careerist “profession”. As an aside I say that we should avoid the word like the plague—scientists cannot be “professionals”. We cannot behave as if we had some delimited and certified domain of competence, like lawyers. New problems make amateurs of us all, and those committed to the notion of the pursuit of knowledge as a “profession” are most likely to miss them. There is no “normal science” in politics; anyone who witnessed the collapse of the Soviet Union can see that.  I am not against US style political science per se. It is good at sorting out patterns in the data it chooses to construct, and it can undermine bogus generalizations.  My real problem is with the style of work, the “we just study politics, we don’t do it” mentality.  Mixing-up studying and doing is fatal, but not doing means one really doesn’t understand the activity—and I don’t just mean running for office.  The excessive objectivity and the preference for narrowly statistical methods affect the problems one can focus on.  This is not objectivity, it is depoliticization. It is not even the blind leading the blind, it is like the blind trying to study voyeurs.

 

Political studies needs to attempt to offer solutions to real political questions based on its knowledge and to push the new questions that it identifies onto the political agenda; questions of which publics and politicians alike are either ignorant or fearful and thus eager to avoid.  Political science in its depoliticized forms gives rise to its matching political practice, policy “wonks”.  The wonk is the master of narrowly-focussed policy studies, where knowledge is technical and the political scientist a purveyor of supposedly neutral advice to professional politicians. This inevitably ignores key issues, they are off the current agenda. In the end though these issues force themselves upon us. Ideology inflicts the opposite deformation.  Ideologized political ideas generally promote utopian solutions—and they divert political and popular movements from the attainable.  We need an engaged political knowledge that is somewhere between the policy wonks and the utopians.  This is hard to achieve—to be engaged and to try to be objective is tough, but it is the only serious stance.  One may disagree with the theoretical form of Max Weber’s defenses of both objectivity and engagement, but in trying to hold the two together creatively he was surely right.

 

Second, political studies is not in “crisis”, but most of the other disciplines in the social sciences are.  The weakness of the other key social sciences gives political analysis not merely a clear role as a specialist discipline, concerned with “the political” however it is conceived, but with the need to provide an element of integration, to act as a generalist discipline of “the social”.  How to define “the political”? Don’t try too hard—my suggestion would be to remain simultaneously aware of the definitions offered by Aristotle, Bernard Crick and Carl Schmitt, centering on community, the negotiation of differences, and friend-enemy relations respectively.  If you ignore any one you are in trouble; if you try to synthesise them, in worse trouble.

 

Sociology has degenerated into an unholy mixture of shallow cultural studies, victimology, narrow specialisms, and irrelevant grand theory—it has abandoned its role as an explanatory science of the nature and foundations of social solidarity as provided by its “founding fathers”: Comte, Durkheim, and Weber.

 

Anthropology has lost its raison d’etre and has struggled to replace it with every possible alternative and fashion from community studies to postmodernist theory.

 

Economics. Economics has been the hegemonic discipline of the social sciences for the last fifty years.  It has promoted the concept of the economic actor as rational interest-maximizing agent with a clear schedule of preferences as the model for all social action.  It has thus treated all social action as if it were strategic, as the pursuit of interest, rather than as deriving from affect, from belief or from morality. The latter motivations are treated as irrational residuals, to be explained away.  It has dissolved institutions into the actions of individuals, not only because of its commitment to methodological individualism, but because it has no extended account of such things as institutions except as necessary to the pursuit of utility.  This is to ignore solidarity, community, loyalty and belief.  It has promoted “transparency” and “accountability”: the one conceived with the mind of a bond dealer interested only in the risk of default, and the other with that of an accountant.  Institutions must be externally accessible to inspection by investors and political agencies, and thus decomposed into cost units and individual performances.  Linked with the new managerialism, this generates what Charles Sabel has called a “science of suspicion”, one that is slowly destroying our public institutions and many firms too. This obsession with transparency and accountablity has proved effective in devaluing the relationships that matter and that make institutions work, and useless at catching the rogues and charlatans that plague modern management, both public and private.

 

Economics lacks models of action that are broad enough for accounting for social life—even for markets.  It lacks a coherent account of economic institutions because it tends to dissolve them into markets and into individual action.  Economic theory and econometrics have their place—even if economics can no longer claim to be  predictive science able to direct policy. Economics is not a monolith, but the mechanisms of economics in the academy work toward closure and to the exclusion of all but a narrow range of concern. The pretensions of mainstream academic economics remain sovereign even as its core models become increasingly remote from actual economic life and as its forecasting becomes no more than a domain of debate.  To the extent that economics does describe the world it is not as a science but as an ideology and as a programme of political action. Economics has become folklore and Economics 101 the recipe for much of our public policy and management practice.

A dead sociology and economics as dogma leave political studies with the broader job of re-building our account of social solidarity, social action and the institutional foundations for community.

 

Third, it is here that we too face a difficulty, that we need to develop a more credible theory of action.  To the extent that US-style political science has become dominant in political studies, so in consequence the discipline has modelled itself on economics and taken its core ideas and practices from the latter’s account of social action.  Rational choice theory and public choice theory have their place, but reducing individuals to strategic actors and institutions to means of realising and accommodating interests is not enough.  The ethnomethodologist Harold Garfinkel is believed to have once asked his students for a summer project to treat living at home as if it were a hotel, that is what rational choice theory does to us as actors.  We need to treat values as more than preferences, and social relationships as more than the means to realize preferences.  Otherwise only the individual’s intimate private world remains fully social—state, nation and the associations of civil society are all hollowed out.  Perhaps we need a crash course that involves reading Durkheim and Hegel at the same time.

 

Fourth, to achieve this broader conception of action and explanation we need to re-integrate the three components into which the study of politics has divided:

      Political Theory: normative discourse divorced from institutions;

      Political Science: institutions and political practice studied independent of political goals;

International Relations: the continued divorce domestic and international politics in world where this makes no sense, there is just politics at different levels.

How to study the division of labour in governance is now the crucial problem for both democratic theory and the rigorous study of institutions.  We need to integrate the investigation of norms, institutional analysis and different levels of institutional analysis into one programme of study. Political theory and institutional analysis need to go together, as they did in the classical discourses on politics, because solving problems of governance through institutional innovation is once again the key problem we face. The great innovations in classical political thought, the theory of the city-state, of the sovereign territorial state, and of representative government, were driven by urgent political questions. We need equal innovations today and they cannot be achieved by shunning norms. Most worthwhile political advocacy must involve fact-values, that is, conditional objectives dependent on circumstances, motivations and institutional capacities.  Politics as a discipline involves the centrality of judgement - values related to facts.

 

Fifth, the need to re-integrate history, but not as grand schemes of causality and social development.  History is central to politics, because it provides standards of measure and forms of otherness against which we can assess our current judgements and pre-occupations.  In 1975 Barry Hindess and I denounced history as a master science and as a causal analysis of the present in Pre-Capitalist Modes of Production.  However, whilst I would not repudiate the substance of that polemic, in its context, history has real uses for political studies.  Historical institutions and political problems can be valuable for thinking through contemporary situations where either we have no current discourse to guide us or where claims that we have entered a wholly new era in some domain or other are made.  Here are some examples that I think show the central role of history as a means of comparison that have become salient in the last ten years.  They are also key themes we should have at the core of research in the discipline.

A.     How are we to think of overarching political structures that are not states, where the attributes of “sovereignty” are shared by different political entities of different scale and scope of authority, and where these entities co-govern across the same territory?  The obvious example is the EU.  It is not a state in a post 17th century sense, it is not just intergovernmental politics, and it is not a supra-national institution with a specific function.  The best examples we have of such phenomena are from the period just prior to the rise of the modern state: the Holy Roman Empire and the Hanseatic League.  Both political entities show the very real pitfalls of such forms of authority: weak legitimacy of the highest level body, conflicting loyalties, joint decision problems and cumbersome decision procedures, and dangers of free-riding.  Whilst neither is an exact match for the EU, both help us see the problems to avoid.

B.     It is often claimed that the international economy is at unprecedented levels of integration; this was a central proposition of the “globalization” discourse that began in the late 1980s.  Yet merchandise trade to GDP ratios, capital flows and labour migration were arguably greater in the period immediately before 1914.  The backlash against globalization was also then far advanced – with rising levels of protectionism and bans on immigration.  Far from being on the verge of a vast expansion of internationalization, we may find cross-border trade and investment close to their limits and public policy lagging behind events.  The world may on the edge of a major depression; if it does happen, then nations and trade blocs will start to retreat from the Washington consensus, even if they do not exactly repeat the futile “beggar thy neighbour” policies of the 1930s. Even if there is no great crash, there mat be a period of relative stagnation in which borders become more salient because of the combined forces of protectionist backlash, fear of migration and anti-terrorist measures. Thus, the periods 1850-1914 and 1929-1939 are crucial reference points for current analysis.

C.     Until the stock market crash of 2000, unprecedented claims were made for the “New Economy” and were widely believed.  Central to those claims was the assumption that the Internet was an unprecedented and transformational technology.  Now there is no doubt that the Internet is a valuable addition to our means of communication and that it makes business of new types possible.  But a little history would show that the claims were hype.  The really transformational communications technology was the telegraph and its effects were felt in the period 1850-1880.  Then it transformed and integrated markets – leading to price convergence and to a dramatic emergence of long-distance commodity markets. Most e-commerce is an updated version of the marketing innovations made possible by the telegraph; Amazon is a smart version of Sears Roebuck.  Moreover, the Internet and digital commodities lack clear business models. For these technologies to flourish fully requires they be treated as public goods – without a rigid regime of property rights, that limits demand and innovation, it is hard to make of profit from selling digital goods. Paradoxically the distinctive features of digital commodities – low costs of replication and ease of sharing – make them ill-adapted to capitalism as we know it. Digital commodities would be better served by common ownership, but don’t too excited about a virtual road to socialism. We already have digital plenty in a world of real scarcity, remember that most people in the world have limited access to electricity and the majority have no telephones.

D.     Equally ludicrous claims were made for the Revolution in Military Affairs, heralded at the same time as the New Economy and as a result of the same revolution in information and communication technology.  At its worst the hype over the RMA made ludicrous claims. Such as: that the constraints of information and distance in war would be wholly abolished, that wars could be fought by machines alone, remotely controlled from the USA, and thus made possible a “post heroic” era of painless military dominance for the USA.  That these claims were silly could be judged by looking at the complex and ambiguous military and political effects of the Military Revolution in the 16th and 17th centuries.  That these new technologies were capable of massive development and that this has hardly begun should also lead us to some caution about the likely radical effects on war.  Too much scepticism is a mistake.  Equally, one should be aware that technology itself can create new vulnerabilities and asymmetrical forms of war that arise from them.  September 11th showed this brutally.  Complex modern societies are highly vulnerable to terrorism, and effects are not proportionate to causes: airlines, tourism, equity markets, etc are all capable of chaotic collapse. It is possible to imagine economic depression in the wake of repeated and unpredictable terrorist outrages.  The rich are vulnerable because they have a complex division of labor and heavy dependence on fragile technology.

E.      To consider the great religious settlement of the mid -17th century that contained and stabilized the political conflict between the rival Christian confessions. This made possible the consolidation of state power and, therefore, the creation of modern sovereignty. With the return of religion as a major political force both nationally and trans-nationally we need to look again at this period.  We need a similar settlement now for the major world religions; one that stabilizes their relation to state power and contains “enthusiasm”.  The problem is that the areas in which this settlement is most necessary often have weak states with low legitimacy and serious problems with either the idea of a concordat between state and religion, or, the acceptance of religious toleration.  We perhaps also need to think of treating religion not merely as an object of study, but of recognising the central role of religion as a discourse of government and of confessional government as a political problem whose solution requires theoretical and institutional innovation.

The point is that historical analysis here does not provide a causal analysis of the present but a means of thinking about it from somewhere else.  It provides an analogy to think about contemporary problems.  It provides a standard of measure for the scale of charge.

 

 

 

 

Issues and Research Agendas

 

It will be obvious that I have smuggled a great deal of substance into our discussion already in the guise of methodology.  The late 1990s were a period of hype and imbalance in both society and the social sciences – the chief examples being the claims for IT and globalization.  It is our job to avoid hype and the boastful vacuities of futurology, but we should be looking for the key issues that will come to dominate politics, particularly those that are off the radar of public discussion or that exist there in a distorted form.  Let me take up five issues where there are key research agendas for political studies and where the conclusions are vital to political actors.

 

First, globalization is an inadequate concept to analyze international economics and politics.  We may be close to the limits of the current phase of international trade and investment – we have overcapacity in many industries and a huge surplus of risk-averse capital with relatively few investment opportunities.  Nevertheless, public policy since 1945 has created a complex inter-space of exchange between the major trading nations and trading blocks.  Multi-national corporations are the primary beneficiaries of this space and thus they should be regarded as its products, rather than as the drivers of the international economy.  Key states, supra-national agencies like IMF, WTO and the principal trade blocks, like the EU and NAFTA are the conjoint governors of this economic-political inter-space. 

 

This inter-space makes the major states more relevant as the key actors across borders.  The question now is how to further fashion this division of labor in governance so that it works better in policy terms.  How can the different elements of this division of labour be made accountable to the world’s diverse publics? How is it possible to transmit accountability between the different levels of this complex arrangement of forms of governance? How can the different agencies and entities be coordinated so as to govern effectively, without excessive overlapping and competition? These are the crucial political problems of our time. So far they have met with a poor response from students of politics. I may not agree with the solutions proposed by David Held and other cosmopolitan democrats, but at least they are aware that there is a problem of governance that goes beyond institutional tinkering. There is no prospect of a supra-national democracy – there is no world demos and hardly the beginnings of an international “civil society” [for a civil society to exist one really needs a state].  The major states are currently the most effective of the nodes tying this complex structure of governance together and making it accountable. But in most developed states democratic institutions are in decline and mass publics indifferent to what they see as irrelevant “foreign affairs”. 

 

These structural issues are as important as the specific policies of states and international agencies.  The problem is that  too much attention is focussed, either on bogus solutions like making the UN responsible for such agencies and itself simultaneously more “democratic” (for that to work it would have to raise money of its own), or “democratizing” the international agencies themselves – but again this would leave them penniless [the great powers would operate the principle “no representation without taxation” and in effect quit].  The key issue is linkage.  States are accountable enough for their policies toward international bodies if publics and legislators take an interest.  Most of the international organizations could be better controlled if the leading states on their governing councils cared enough, but they do not. The IMF works in the interests of international investors because politicians and policy elites agree with this policy. 

 

We now have a complex international “quasi-polity” made up of states, blocs, the G8 and international agencies. It is a quasi-polity because it has no demos and no “sovereignty”: its powers and decisions  are ad hoc; and its members are political entities represented for specific purposes, not citizens for all purposes.  It makes no sense now to separate domestic and foreign policy – thus the EU’s common rules are domestic policy for the member states and what the EU agrees to at the WTO becomes so too.  Equally it makes no sense to separate politics and international relations as if they were different in kind– most international politics is now “low politics”, not the “high politics” of war and peace. This combination of sharing of decisions and division of labour in governance is not unlike some of the Medieval and Early Modern examples I mentioned before.

 

Second, democracy and democratization dominated the discourse on regimes from the 1980s as many states in Latin America, Eastern Europe, East Asia and Africa moved toward  democratic rule.  The result was that non-democratic regimes have come to be seen as inherently illegitimate; the products of social fragmentation and economic backwardness.  Yet it should be obvious that it is hard to build stable and effective democratic regimes in many countries. For example, the notion of a democratic Iraq is incredible: the country has only known authoritarian regimes of worsening severity since its formation at the end of WW1, is deeply divided between different religious and ethnic groups, and the population has had no political experience whatsoever since Saddam Hussein.  Equally China could well fall apart if it were to quickly attempt to become a democracy. 

 

We must therefore ask how far is it possible to build legitimate non-democratic regimes that have the authority to contain tensions but can also respect a minimum of social and political rights?  We do not like such efficient authoritarian regimes – like Singapore. We may have not merely to live with them but also support them as the best option in much of Africa, the Middle East and Asia.  This is not to foreclose transitions from authoritarian rule– S. Korea and Taiwan are obvious successes, as are Spain and Portugal. In none of these transitions was the meddling of the “international community” the decisive factor, however. There are few examples of stable poor democracies – India being the great exception. 

 

We should be cautious about de-legitimizing other forms of regime, as if democracy were the only standard.  It is what regimes do that matters – Morocco is internationally accepted, whereas Zimbabwe should be under greater external pressure.  In this respect we ought to think about the best forms of regime, this side of full multi-party pluralism: such as constitutional monarchy, with limited political contestation, or, regimes in which public debate and the rule of law are maintained, that are a rechtsstaat but not a democracy.  Totalitarian regimes and brutal autocracies are obviously not options. They should enjoy the bare minimum of international tolerance, but unless they attack their neighbors or sponsor terrorism on a large scale they should be left in peace. Intervention by the powers is usually a disaster – “nation building” and “regime change” are signs of an arrogance that is likely to fail.

 

If this seems like an arrogant “democracy is too good for lesser breeds without the law” stance, then think again.  The classic discourses of politics from Aristotle through Bodin to Montesquieu were always clear that there were different types of regime and that they were only possible under definite conditions. True arrogance is to wish away these conditions and to imagine that the “international community” can build democracy where it chooses. In the 1990s this became the arrogance of much of the human rights left as of the United States. The results are far from encouraging. Bosnia is not a democracy, but a UN protectorate holding the rival factions in a fractured society apart by force of arms. Kosovo is not a democracy, but a NATO partitioned province in a state of semi-anarchy. We need to think about this carefully or we shall be unable to deal fairly with the real differences in capacity between states. Some states are almost notional, like Somalia. Many small and poor states can hardly afford to be full international players, for example, they have neither the economic clout nor the skilled personnel to have any real influence in WTO negotiations.

 

Also the problem of how to maintain democracy is not just for non-Western states.  Democracy is under threat in the developed world; because of mass apathy in the exercise of political rights. Thus the USA at federal level is in danger of slipping from a genuine mass democracy toward what is in substantive terms a competitive oligarchy. The pressures of domestic crime, international terrorism and mass migration are pushing many countries, like the UK, toward authoritarian policies that are only “democratic” in that they have the mass support of a frightened populace.  Thus the survival of liberalism is as crucial to the health of genuine democracy as the issue of democratic legitimation.  How do we retain rights in a security state?  How can we prevent the legitimisation of action against “outsiders” creating a regime in which all citizens are subject to intrusive surveillance and coerced by an over-powerful and unchecked security apparatus, from M16 to nervous flight attendants?

 

Third, this fear of “outsiders” is in a sense rational.  Economically successful citizens in the OECD countries are a rich minority who prosper in a world of rising inequality within and between nations.  This does not make the fear right.  Domestic inequality on a gross scale, in countries like Brazil, and to a lesser degree the USA and UK, not merely breeds resentment among the poor, it also leads to luxury and corruption among the rich.  Such private vices become public ills; it is difficult to keep corruption out of politics – as Enron shows.  If we see inequality not through the lens of classical political discourses, then the consequence is corruption of the polity – the combination of the buying of influence and the corruption of civic virtue among a powerless and increasingly politically inert citizenry.  The politics of the Ancients is not ours, we need only a minimum of virtue, but we do need that minimum.  In some form or another we need to restore the discourse on corruption – social solidarity and political participation are linked, luxury, inequality and corruption destroy both. If any body of modern political thought has understood this fully it is feminism, for example Anne Phillips’ Which Equalities Matter?

 

That a certain level of equality is necessary for the health of democracy needs to be said.  There is a strong economic and welfare case to be made against inequality.  Inequality is a growth killer – because it stifles broad-based effective demand, which is the real engine of modern mass consumption economies, not the luxury consumption of tiny elites.  Inadequate welfare also undermines growth, because it undermines both educational and economic participation.  But there is also a political case to be made, and we need to make it vigorously.  The Ancient World understood that all regimes tended toward decline and corruption in their own way, although this could be arrested for a time by vigorous action.  We have come to believe the reverse, that democracy is inherently good and therefore immune to such problems.  We also in the 20th century came to see the issue of equality in terms of economics and socialism, so that the political critique of luxury fell into disrepute.

 

International inequality is also a political and not just an economic problem.  Left unchecked it will tend to promote chaos and undermine governance and thus the international economy.  Terrorism and mass migratory pressures can wreck markets that depend on confidence and lead to pressure to close borders.  At the same time current policies for “development” will not even up the world – most developing countries will remain poor, with at best low-value added export sectors.  The world will not even up by normal processes of trade, investment and growth.  Hence we shall continue to be confronted with the fact of gross international inequality and this will provide a purported legitimation for attacks on the rich.  We need in response to promote a welfare ethos that stresses solidarity within and between nations.  This will not happen unless we understand better the sources of solidarity and thus of community.  Hence the concern with a broader concept of action and the actor is not merely methodological, but vital to politics.  In the end it may be a rational choice to pay taxes and to give aid, but no more than a minority will ever do either for that reason – both require value and belief systems.

 

Fourth, up till now most people have been solidaristic for religious or nationalistic reasons.  Highly solidaristic societies are often exclusive ones – an example is close to home here in Denmark in the relative success of the DPP and their programme of a welfare state only for Danes, not for non-European immigrants and asylum seekers.  Something similar has happened in the Netherlands.  The problem is that the other non-nationalistic sources of solidarity, through associations in civil society, have been gravely weakened.  In part this is a consequence of the same general processes leading to a decline in participation, also affecting  party membership and voting. Active membership of voluntary associations and charitable giving is in decline in many countries.

 

The reasons are partly the negative side of the positive growth in individualism, discretionary consumption and value pluralism.  People have better things to do than attend dreary  meetings and more money to amuse themselves.  People increasingly choose lifestyles and values, and move between them. Hence association memberships tend to become more exclusive – we join people like us – and less all encompassing (these are communities of choice not fate – unlike the old workers’ associations).  But there are other reasons too.  Denmark is something of an exception – with strong localism and an active associational life.  But in many countries, of which the UK is the clearest example, we have developed an “uncivil” society.  Most major institutions have become large unaccountable hierarchically controlled organizations: from building societies to large charities to universities.  Bureaucratization, centralization and unaccountable managerial power have reduced many organizations – schools, hospitals and businesses – to places where people have no settled place and no say.  Hence they no longer identify with institutions and they loose the primary experience of their contribution making a difference – this hollows out democracy and association.  The micro-politics of social life is shut down in favour of targets, guidelines, reporting to superiors, and filling in forms.  This leads to quietism and to a lack of basic experience of one’s actions making a difference – voice is for the managerial class, from the ranks of which are drawn professional politicians.  Democratizing organizations and re-building associations is a central part of recreating the foundations for participation in both formal democracy and civil society.  It is also crucial to building wider solidarities; people who feel they have some power and same say are more likely to be outward looking and inclined to generosity. It is more important in renewing participation than either networks or deliberative democracy.  New ideas of substitutes for participation and new forms “softpower” are not real alternatives if the core of formal mass democracy and much of social action are hollowed out.  This is a central area for both research and institution building – it can also build bridges between political theory and political science, since it looks at the social capital debate from a different angle.

 

Moreover, the links between the rich and poor worlds need to be built not just by states giving aid, but between people.  Solidarity through civil society is essential – people will aid others if they can see their actions make a difference and if they come to identify with them.  This happens now with organizations like Oxfam and some of the fair trade bodies to a limited extent, but the scope for it is huge.  Such a movement to offer aid from below will serve to create the ties between rich and poor worlds that may help to mitigate the fear on the one side and the resentment on the other.  In the long run ties of this kind may be more effective than repressive counter-terrorist and anti-migrant policies.  They may also begin to build forms of solidarity that can inform more formal institutions.  The danger with the concept of the “Global civil society” now is that too much of it consists of self-appointed, state-sponsored or international agency-sponsored NGOs, often with little popular support.  These facts are well known and undermine the credibility of many activist campaigns with the established institutions.

 

Five, to finish what has become a gloomy discourse, let us turn to the biggest and most desperate problem: climate change.  Despite Bjorn Lomborg, this is happening.  In all probability our actions have accelerated a natural warming cycle and this is now in danger of running out of control and producing rapid and chaotic change.  The results are difficult to predict, but they are unlikely to be dealt with by the sort of gradualist and adaptational policies that politicians are familiar with.  Climate change is likely to devastate the poorer parts of the world with turbulent weather, rising sea levels, flooding and desertification.  It will not spare the rich countries either, even though they will have more resources with which to cope.  The result will be environmental refugees, and scarcity of water, food, farmland and raw materials.  The potential for conflict is huge.  The difficulty is how to prevent it. 

 

Dealing with CFCs was relatively easy.  It has been possible to check ozone depletion by means of an international treaty regime and technical change.  Dealing with CO2 emissions is much harder – it involves serious problems of collective action and mass behaviour.  It involves a widespread conversion to changing basic features of our daily life – not using cars, not taking holidays by plane, cutting electricity consumption – all of which will be difficult, especially in the worst polluter the USA.  It also involves helping the poor world to less damaging energy consumption.  Even then we may not eliminate the trend, merely prevent its acceleration to catastrophe.  Here political knowledge needs to combine with natural science.  Together they can construct possible worlds that force us to think about the political and technical options before us.  We have no idea whether people can be persuaded en masse to act on the precautionary principle. When they are scared enough to respond it will be already too late.  But if we do not attend to some of the political issues in the points I made earlier then there will be no chance, we shall not be addressing a democratic citizenry but a demobilized mass who live in and through consumption.  Solidarity is the foundation of precautionary action: if we don’t care about others now, we shall hardly think the future of our civilization matters.  In a basic way the issues of democracy, solidarity, development and global warming are linked.  We need to work on proving those links, turning assertions into demonstrable propositions, and then we may have some credible lessons and some viable recipes for change to offer to our fellow citizens.  That would entirely justify our keep.